2.2萬字             99頁              包括外文翻譯

 

摘要

于橋水庫位于薊運(yùn)河流域左支州河，是“引欒入津”工程重點調(diào)蓄水庫之一，總庫容15.59億m3。受大陸性季風(fēng)氣候、地形、人為因素等影響，該區(qū)域降水量集中與6~9月份，且年際變化大，故極端暴雨干旱災(zāi)害時有發(fā)生。因此，需要選擇適當(dāng)?shù)念A(yù)報系統(tǒng)對水庫入水量作出及時準(zhǔn)確的預(yù)報，為庫區(qū)水資源優(yōu)化調(diào)度提供保障。

本次將于橋流域劃分為庫區(qū)間、龍門口、水平口、前毛莊共4個自然子流域，并以年降雨徑流相關(guān)圖對各子流域的進(jìn)行時期劃分。根據(jù)子流域的自然地理概況、水庫建造情況和水文資料的整理情況，在前毛莊子流域內(nèi)，采用CASC2D模型和新安江模型兩種模型進(jìn)行模擬，在水平口、龍門口以及于橋流域則采用適用于無資料地區(qū)的新安江模型進(jìn)行參數(shù)率定。在進(jìn)行于橋流域模擬時，選擇兩種方案進(jìn)行，結(jié)果表明模擬計算效果良好。根據(jù)于橋水庫的模型模擬情況開發(fā)于橋流域?qū)崟r洪水預(yù)報系統(tǒng)，實現(xiàn)資料提取處理、洪水預(yù)報和調(diào)洪演算，為水庫調(diào)度提供及時準(zhǔn)確的依據(jù)。

關(guān)鍵詞：于橋水庫；新安江模型； CASC2D模型；降雨徑流關(guān)系；洪水預(yù)報系統(tǒng)

 

Abstract

Yuqiao reservoir is located in the left branch of Zhouhe river on the Jiyunhe basin, it is one of the important regulating reservoir about ‘water diversion project from Luanhe river to Tianjin City’ project, which can store 1.559 billion m3 of water. Affected by some factors, such as continental monsoon climate, terrain, human factors, the most precipitation is concentrated in June to September, and the interanural change is big, so extreme torrential rain disasters sometimes may be occurred. Therefore, it is imperative to make such a forecasting system which is conducive to reservoir filling and water resources optimal allocation.

According to natural sub basin division method , Yuqiao was divided into four sub basins , Qiangmaozhuang , Shuipingkou , Longmenkou and the Yuqiao reservoir area . Then by using rainfall-runoff correlation diagram , the research of each sub basin was divided into different periods. The CASC2D model and Xin'anjiang model were applied to Qiangmaozhuang sub basin . in other sub basin because of the date's lack , we choose to use Xin'anjiang model only . watchable，two scheme were applied to Yuqiao reservoir area simulation and the results are satisfying . on the basis of those results , we developed the flood forecasting system which include date extraction , flood forecasting and flood routing to supply timely and accurate gist for Yuqiao reservoir opration.

Key Words: Yuqiao resrvior ;  Xinanjiang model； CASCD2D model；Rainfall-runoff relationship；Flood forecasting system