摘 要
穿梭油船與FPSO進(jìn)行石油串聯(lián)卸載期間，不可避免的發(fā)生碰撞、輸油軟管斷裂、氣體輸送管道泄漏等風(fēng)險事件。油氣一旦泄漏很有可能引發(fā)劇烈的火災(zāi)、爆炸，危及到平臺及人員的安全。風(fēng)險評估技術(shù)可以科學(xué)地預(yù)測事故發(fā)生概率及破壞程度，從而降低事故風(fēng)險。對FPSO石油外輸作業(yè)系統(tǒng)進(jìn)行風(fēng)險評估技術(shù)的研究，建立一套風(fēng)險分析方法，對提高FPSO石油外輸作業(yè)的安全性具有極其重要的意義。
本文在廣泛調(diào)研的基礎(chǔ)上，針對FPSO進(jìn)行石油外輸作業(yè)期間的相關(guān)風(fēng)險因素進(jìn)行了風(fēng)險識別，將風(fēng)險進(jìn)行等級劃分；改進(jìn)了穿梭油船與浮式平臺發(fā)生漂移碰撞的概率數(shù)學(xué)模型，結(jié)合典型數(shù)據(jù)進(jìn)行計(jì)算，得到了穿梭油船與FPSO發(fā)生漂移碰撞的概率；采用NEPTUNE軟件對油氣泄漏事故的后果進(jìn)行模擬分析；結(jié)合碰撞事故案例，進(jìn)行事件樹和事故樹分析，并采用貝葉斯網(wǎng)絡(luò)法加以修正；最后提出降低風(fēng)險的措施。
本文主要工作如下：
1. 采用概率分析方法，基于事件發(fā)生頻率和后果的嚴(yán)重程度，分析了FPSO外輸作業(yè)期間的風(fēng)險因素，進(jìn)行了FPSO外輸作業(yè)期間的風(fēng)險識別，并劃分風(fēng)險等級；從材料失效概率、人員安全、環(huán)境風(fēng)險三方面研究了FPSO與穿梭油輪石油外輸作業(yè)系統(tǒng)風(fēng)險可接受準(zhǔn)則；
2. 利用數(shù)學(xué)統(tǒng)計(jì)的方法，研究了穿梭油船偏移事件與碰撞事件之間的聯(lián)系；基于動力碰撞理論和漂移碰撞理論，結(jié)合典型數(shù)據(jù)進(jìn)行計(jì)算，得到穿梭油船與FPSO發(fā)生動力碰撞和漂移碰撞的概率；改進(jìn)了挪威船級社關(guān)于船舶與平臺發(fā)生漂移碰撞的概率模型，得到穿梭油船與浮式平臺發(fā)生漂移碰撞的概率公式，并根據(jù)相關(guān)數(shù)據(jù)進(jìn)行計(jì)算；闡述了FPSO與穿梭油輪進(jìn)行串聯(lián)石油卸載的具體操作過程；分析了穿梭油船在石油外輸作業(yè)期間發(fā)生偏移的原因及其后果。
3. 利用NEPTUNE軟件針對輸油軟管斷裂和碰撞事件引發(fā)的原油和碳?xì)錃怏w泄露后果進(jìn)行模擬分析。并預(yù)測了泄漏事故引發(fā)火災(zāi)的概率，探討了火災(zāi)、熱輻射、氣體爆炸的影響范圍；
4. 結(jié)合碰撞事故案例，進(jìn)行事件樹和事故樹分析，采用貝葉斯網(wǎng)絡(luò)法加以修正；提出降低風(fēng)險的措施。

關(guān)鍵詞 FPSO； 穿梭油船； 風(fēng)險評估； 貝葉斯網(wǎng)絡(luò)





























ABSTRACT
During offloading operation between shuttle tanker and FPSO, there are some accidents which can’t be avoid, for example, Shuttle tanker crashed FPSO, oil hose ruptured, leak incident of the gas production process module and so on. The leakage of oil and gas may lead to severe fire, explosion, endangering to the platform, working vessels, personnel. Scientific risk assessment causing widespread concern can predict the probability of accidents and damage, thus reducing the risk of accidents in the marine engineering field. So it is extremely important to establish risk assessment techniques concerning on offloading operations in order to improve the security of offloading operations.
Based on extensive research, this thesis identifies the hazard during offloading operation between Shuttle tanker and FPSO, then grade the classification of the hazard; This thesis establishes the mathematical model of collision during offloading operation between shuttle tanker and FPSO and calculates the risk probability of collision; This thesis simulates the gas leak with the software NEPTUNE and forecasts the influence of accident; Contacting the collision events, this thesis analyzes the HOE with the event-tree-method, fault-tree-method; and result should be corrected with the Bayesian-network-method to be more accurate; this thesis predicts scientific the scope of the event, propose measures of the risk reduction.
The main work as follows:
1. This thesis analyzes the risk factors during offloading operation, then grade the classification of the hazard; the thesis researches the acceptance criteria of hazard during offloading operation in three aspects of failure probability, personnel safety and environment risk.
2. the thesis establishes the mathematical model of collision during offloading operation between shuttle tanker and FPSO; making use of statistical date，the thesis quantitative analysis the probability of the collision during offloading operations; This thesis describes the specific process of the offloading operations between FPSO and shuttle tanker; the thesis analysis the cause of shuttle tanker leaves the designated location and its consequences;
3. This thesis analyzes the two consequences for leakages during the offloading operation of shuttle tanker and FPSO by software NEPTUNE form DNV. This thesis also forecasts the probability of fire by leakage, discuss the influence limits of fire, Thermal radiation and Gas explosion.
4. Contacting the collision events, this thesis analyzes the HOE with the event-tree-method, fault-tree-method; and because fault-tree-method is insufficient, result should be corrected with the Bayesian-network-method to be more accurate.

Key words FPSO; Shuttle tanker; risk assessment; Bayesian net


















目 錄
摘 要 I
ABSTRACT III
目 錄 V
第1章 緒論 1
1.1 選題的理論意義和實(shí)用價值 1
1.2 國內(nèi)外研究現(xiàn)狀與發(fā)展趨勢 3
1.3 研究內(nèi)容與研究方法 8
1.3.1研究內(nèi)容 8
1.3.2 研究方法 8
1.3.3 創(chuàng)新點(diǎn) 9
第2章 海洋工程風(fēng)險評估理論 10
2.1 引言 10-br..