摘  要

　　　紡織品行業(yè)是我國僅次于電子通信行業(yè)的第二大出口行業(yè)，出口依存度高達51%,而且其不斷擴大的國際市場份額又是建立在勞動力成本和價格優(yōu)勢之上的。人民幣升值將使我國紡織品出口受到巨大的影響，大大削弱紡織產(chǎn)品在國際市場上的競爭力，導致國內(nèi)紡織企業(yè)的惡性競爭,因此，人民幣升值必將對嚴重依賴國際市場出口的我國紡織行業(yè)產(chǎn)生巨大的壓力。我國紡織品行業(yè)應該提高生產(chǎn)科技水平，提升產(chǎn)品的附加值，調(diào)整產(chǎn)品結構，樹立品牌觀念，促進產(chǎn)業(yè)結構升級，增強企業(yè)在國際市場上的核心競爭力。

　　　本文主要對我國紡織品出口現(xiàn)狀、特點、問題和人民幣升值的主要原因進行了簡要分析,在理論分析的基礎上，通過建立包括我國紡織品出口總額、人民幣兌美元的實際有效匯率、我國國內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值、主要貿(mào)易伙伴GDP總和在內(nèi)的多元回歸模型，用實證分析的方法分析了人民幣升值對我國紡織品出口存在影響，并針對人民幣升值對我國紡織品出口的不利影響提出相關的解決方案和建議，從而使我國紡織行業(yè)在人民幣升值的環(huán)境下能夠得到更快、更穩(wěn)健的發(fā)展。

關鍵詞: 人民幣升值； 紡織品出口；紡織業(yè)；競爭力

  

ABSTRACT

     

Textile industry whose export dependence is up to 51% is a traditional industry in China’s exports, which ranks only second to the E-communication industry. And its continuously expanding international market share is based on the labor cost advantage and competitive price.  So, the RMB’s appreciation will greatly diminish China textile and clothing products’ competitiveness in the international market，simultaneously aggravate the vicious competition within the domestic textile industries. To handle the problem, we textile industry should promote the producing condition and the technical level, improve the additional value of the products, adjust the product mix and set up the brand-oriented sense to upgrade the industrial structure and enhance the core competence of enterprise in international market.

This paper gives a brief analysis to the present situations, characteristics and exiting problems of the textile industry. On the basis of theory, it designs a multivariate model including the total exports of our textile industry, the real effective exchange rate between RMB and American dollar, our Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and the total GDP wealth of our main trade partners.  In addition, the paper takes instances to explain the two-side influences of the RMB’s appreciation on the export of textile products. Besides, some possible measures and advices are presented to the bad side, by which China would keep its textile industry have a faster and more stable development under the effect of RMB’s appreciation. 

Keywords：appreciation of RMB； textile exports；  textile industry；  competitive power

目    錄

引言……………………………………………….. …………………………………..1

1 我國紡織品出口的現(xiàn)狀和問題……………………………………...2

1.1 我國紡織品出口現(xiàn)狀…………………………………………………....2

1.2 我國紡織品出口的特點 ……………………………………………....2

1.3 我國紡織品出口企業(yè)面臨的問題…………………………….….…4

2 人民幣升值的原因分析……………………………………………...….4

2.1 外部因素………………………………….. ……………………………........5

2.2 內(nèi)部因素…………………………………………………………………..…..5

3 人民幣升值對我國紡織品出口的影響分析…………….….....6

3.1 人民幣升值對我國紡織品出口的不利影響…………………....6

3.1.1 價格優(yōu)勢削弱…………………………………………………………...6

3.1.2 企業(yè)出口效益降低………………………………………………..…..7

3.1.3 競爭將更趨激烈……………………………………………………..…7

3.1.4 出口匯率風險增加………………………………………………..…..7

3.1.5 加大企業(yè)就業(yè)壓力………………………………………………........8

3.1.6 導致紡織生產(chǎn)產(chǎn)業(yè)轉(zhuǎn)移和外商投資轉(zhuǎn)移……………………8

3.2 人民幣升值對我國紡織品出口的有利影響………………..…8

3.2.1 減輕進口能源和原料的成本負擔…………………………..…..8

3.2.2 有利于我國紡織行業(yè)結構的調(diào)整………………………………8

3.2.3 減少貿(mào)易摩擦和改善貿(mào)易環(huán)境……………………………….....9

3.2.4 增加對外投資……………………………………………………….....9

4 人民幣升值對我國紡織品出口影響的實證分析………….9

5 我國紡織業(yè)應對人民幣升值的對策………………….………...13

5.1 加速轉(zhuǎn)型調(diào)整產(chǎn)業(yè)結構………………………………………….…..13

5.2 實施“走出去”戰(zhàn)略，規(guī)避壁壘………………………………..13

5.3 加強行業(yè)自律組織建設,減少惡性競爭的出現(xiàn)…………....14

5.4 利用金融工具規(guī)避匯率風險……………………………..………..14

結束語……………………………………………………………………………..16

參考文獻…………………………………………………………………..……..17

致謝………………………………………………………………………………...18