摘 要
烏江是貴州省內第一大河，烏江多梯級樞紐的興建將極大改善烏江的航運條件，為烏江區(qū)域經濟和航運事業(yè)帶來了新的契機，烏江干流梯級水利樞紐將配套建設通航設施，但通航設施存在著通航設施建設進度不一致、承船箱尺寸不一致、通過時間不一致、通航流量不一致等問題，直接形成“短板”效應，隨著沿江經濟發(fā)展，日益增長的運輸需求與樞紐通航設施通過能力之間將產生矛盾，為未雨綢繆、最大限度地提高烏江通航設施通行效率，充分發(fā)揮烏江黃金水道的優(yōu)勢，合理利用運輸網絡中各種資源，優(yōu)化設計各貨類船舶的高效船舶貨運組織方案已迫在眉睫。
烏江多梯級樞紐區(qū)域的船舶貨運組織屬于復雜運輸網絡系統(tǒng)，目前對于樞紐區(qū)域船舶貨運組織的研究主要以定性分析為主，定量分析較少且沒有站在綜合運輸系統(tǒng)規(guī)劃的角度分析，而針對烏江的相關研究至今尚未涉及。由于烏江船舶貨運系統(tǒng)的復雜性，構建的理論優(yōu)化模型與實際可能會產生偏差，優(yōu)化的船舶貨運組織方案的可行性需要驗證，計算機仿真技術的發(fā)展為其提供了手段，為此本文針對烏江多梯級樞紐區(qū)域通航環(huán)境特點，嘗試采用理論優(yōu)化與仿真模擬相結合的新方法，優(yōu)化設計出烏江多梯級樞紐區(qū)域高效船舶貨運組織方案。
本論文首先分析多梯級樞紐的建設對烏江船舶貨運組織帶來的影響；其次針對烏江多梯級樞紐區(qū)域船舶貨運系統(tǒng)特點，改進現(xiàn)有網絡優(yōu)化模型，構建出廣義成本最小的烏江高效船舶貨運組織優(yōu)化模型，其中引入單重休假規(guī)則M/G/1樞紐排隊系統(tǒng)模型確定船舶通過樞紐時間，并求解出初步優(yōu)化方案；接著針對烏江船舶貨運系統(tǒng)離散特性，基于arena平臺構建出面向對象的仿真模型，以驗證理論優(yōu)化方案的可行性及存在的問題；最后通過理論優(yōu)化方案與仿真模擬的交互優(yōu)化過程，最終提出適合烏江多梯級樞紐區(qū)域貨運網絡的高效船舶貨運組織方案。
關鍵字：烏江 多梯級樞紐 網絡優(yōu)化改進模型 arena仿真建模 高效船舶貨運組織方案

Abstract
Wujiang River is the largest river in Guizhou province, but the Wu River shipping channel condition have not been able to meet the needs of development of shipping. the construction of cascade hydro-projects will greatly improve the shipping condition of Wujiang River and bring opportunity for the developing of regional economy and the shipping industry, the multi-hub cascade of Wujiang will be supporting the shipping facilities, but there are several problem about shipping facilities: each shipping facilities has inconsistent construction progress, different size of ship lift, different time to have ship passed, different navigation flow problem and other issues, leading to a "short board" effect, by the development of economic along the Wujiang River, the conflict will be created by the different growing demand of transportation and passing capacity of navigation hub, bring a great difficulty for the organization of shipping in restriction of Wujiang multi-cascade hydro-projects. To plan ahead to maximize the efficiency of high-grade channel and navigation facilities in Wujiang ,giving full play to the advantages of the Wujiang River golden waterway, rational using of transport network resources, a efficient multi-cargo organization program should be made so that the whole channel Wujiang cascade hydro-projects district will be eased off.
Currently, the qualitative analysis play a main role in the research of shipping organization in the hub region, quantitative analysis is not much and can’t analysis the whole system in a overall view, what’s more, the shipping organization like Wujiang River multi-cascade hydro-projects issue has not yet been addressed. Network optimization model often be taken used of in solving the complex organization freight transport networks, but the limitations goal of network optimization model can not make a comprehensive assessment optimization results. Computer simulation technology have gradually entered the field of transportation planning, but simulation technology mainly work out as a tool of validation and eva luation, taking use the simulation technology to optimize will be effected by subjective factor and difficult to find the optimal solution.
Based on the above reasons, the following aspects will be taken in the research work. First, qualitative analysis the influence of construction of a multi-cascade hydro-projects on shipping organization, then based on the characteristics of Wujiang multi-cascade hydro-projects, improving the exist network optimization model to make out a lowest generalized cost model of shipping organization in Wujiang multi-cascade hydro-projects region, solving the model to get the initial optimization shipping organization program. on the other hand, introduction the idea of queuing theory to analysis the multi-cascade hydro-projects. Then, on the based of analysis of the discrete freight system of Wujiang multi-cascade region, building the simulation model in a ideological of object-oriented to simulate and test the initial program to find out the possible problem with the initial program. Finally, taking use of computer simulation technology and mathematical programming method in general to optimize the initial program of Wujiang multi-cascade hydro-projects shipping organization, getting a reasonable program which can take use of Wujiang multi-cascade hydro-projects shipping syste..