總線實(shí)現(xiàn)社會(huì)、經(jīng)濟(jì)與環(huán)境動(dòng)態(tài)系統(tǒng)建模
1.2萬(wàn)字 36頁(yè)
包括開(kāi)題報(bào)告和任務(wù)書



摘 要
隨著社會(huì)的發(fā)展，經(jīng)濟(jì)多元化趨勢(shì)越來(lái)越明顯，可以用各項(xiàng)國(guó)民經(jīng)濟(jì)指標(biāo)來(lái)衡量地區(qū)的經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展情況，本次任務(wù)針對(duì)福建省2000-2004年主要的國(guó)民經(jīng)濟(jì)主要指標(biāo)，包括了地區(qū)的總產(chǎn)出，消費(fèi)水平，人口數(shù)，從業(yè)人員數(shù)等各項(xiàng)重要指標(biāo)。
論文任務(wù)首先從數(shù)據(jù)采集開(kāi)始，通過(guò)使用Visual Studio 2005開(kāi)發(fā)工具設(shè)計(jì)數(shù)據(jù)輸入工具，將所需數(shù)據(jù)統(tǒng)一錄入到Excel表格中，在根據(jù)要求對(duì)表格中的數(shù)據(jù)進(jìn)行統(tǒng)計(jì)分析，結(jié)合查閱的資料對(duì)福建省實(shí)際的經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展情況進(jìn)行了總結(jié)分析，為后面的動(dòng)態(tài)系統(tǒng)建模打下基礎(chǔ)。
通過(guò)學(xué)習(xí)新的系統(tǒng)思考軟件STELLA進(jìn)行建模，對(duì)模型進(jìn)行了深入的了解和研究，明白動(dòng)態(tài)系統(tǒng)建模的基本思想，通過(guò)研究對(duì)象之間的數(shù)理邏輯關(guān)系建立模型，并運(yùn)行模型分析結(jié)果，再通過(guò)實(shí)際數(shù)據(jù)對(duì)模型進(jìn)行調(diào)整，使得模型能夠更真實(shí)和科學(xué)的反映出研究對(duì)象的變化規(guī)律。
運(yùn)行動(dòng)態(tài)系統(tǒng)模型，以時(shí)間為變量，隨著時(shí)間的變化，系統(tǒng)運(yùn)行得到未來(lái)的模擬數(shù)據(jù)，從而得出區(qū)域經(jīng)濟(jì)的趨勢(shì)以及變化，并結(jié)合各年份福建對(duì)促進(jìn)經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展所做出的政策調(diào)整，以及該政策實(shí)施后對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)的實(shí)際影響和作用，從而可以預(yù)測(cè)和估計(jì)流域經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展的方向，并針對(duì)需要調(diào)整政策，以便于維持和促進(jìn)地區(qū)經(jīng)濟(jì)的發(fā)展。

關(guān)鍵詞：福建；經(jīng)濟(jì)；政策；國(guó)民經(jīng)濟(jì)主要指標(biāo)；模型；管理



Social, economic and environmental dynamic modeling system


Abstract
Along with social development, economic diversification trend is becoming increasingly obvious. We can use various economic indicators to measure the region's economic development. This task is the major economic indicators of 2000-2004 in Fujian including the regional total output, the level of consumption, population, number of employees and other important indicators.
Papers from the first tasks of data collection, through the use of Visual Studio 2005 development tool design data entry tool Unity will be necessary input data to Excel form, in accordance with the requirements of the form of statistical data analysis, combining the data of Fujian actual economic development of a summary analysis, back to the dynamic system modeling lay the groundwork.
Through the study of the new system Thinking software STELLA to model, after understanding the model in-depth and study dynamic system modeling to understand the basic idea , through the study of mathematical logic modeling, and operating model results, and through the actual data adjustments to the model, Models can be made more real and scientific research reflects the changes.
Run the Dynamic system modeling, model with time as variable, with the change of time, the system is simulated data in future of, Thus, it reached a regional economic trends and changes, and the combination of Fujian year to promote economic development, as well as a policy adjustment and the implementation of policies on the actual economic impact and role, so we can predict and estimate valley in the direction of economic development, and to the need to adjust its policy in order to preserve and promote the region's economic development

Keywords: Fujian; Economy; Policy; Major economic indicators; Model; Management






目 錄
1. 緒論 1
1.1 課題背景及目的 1
2. 總體概況 3
2.1 研究區(qū)域 3
2.2 系統(tǒng)復(fù)雜性 3
2.3 關(guān)于動(dòng)態(tài)系統(tǒng)模型 4
3. 數(shù)據(jù)采集和統(tǒng)計(jì) 5
3.1 數(shù)據(jù)來(lái)源 5
3.2 數(shù)據(jù)輸入小工具 6
3.3 數(shù)據(jù)統(tǒng)計(jì)結(jié)果 8
4．年度經(jīng)濟(jì)情況分析匯報(bào) 10
4.1 綜合 10
4.2 農(nóng)業(yè) 11
4.3 工業(yè) 11
4.4 人口和人民生活 14
4.5 年度小結(jié) 15
5. 解讀建模工具STELLA 16
5.1 工具簡(jiǎn)介 16
5.2 操作環(huán)境預(yù)覽 16
5.3 iThink和STELLA 的結(jié)合 17
5.4 工具的新特性 17
5.5 工具的基本操作 17
6．利用建模工具Stella和采集的數(shù)據(jù)進(jìn)行建模 21
6.1 分析數(shù)據(jù)并創(chuàng)建模型 21
6.2 模型數(shù)據(jù)分析 22
6.3 模型的更改及調(diào)整 25
6.4 模型總結(jié)展望 28
致 謝 31
參 考 文 獻(xiàn) 32



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