企業(yè)現(xiàn)金流風(fēng)險(xiǎn)測(cè)度及其防范對(duì)策--以某醫(yī)藥企業(yè)為例

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摘 要
現(xiàn)金流對(duì)企業(yè)而言具有重要的意義。現(xiàn)金流自始至終都貫穿在企業(yè)的生產(chǎn)活動(dòng)當(dāng)中，同時(shí)也會(huì)綜合體現(xiàn)企業(yè)的經(jīng)營(yíng)成果?，F(xiàn)金流是企業(yè)之本，任何企業(yè)離開了現(xiàn)金流的支撐，都是無(wú)法正常運(yùn)轉(zhuǎn)的。在當(dāng)下激烈的市場(chǎng)競(jìng)爭(zhēng)中，企業(yè)要想立于不敗之地，必須從長(zhǎng)遠(yuǎn)的角度統(tǒng)籌規(guī)劃現(xiàn)金流管理。同樣的，企業(yè)日常的經(jīng)營(yíng)活動(dòng)和投融資活動(dòng)依靠現(xiàn)金流而緊密的聯(lián)系在一起?，F(xiàn)金流作為企業(yè)進(jìn)行投融資決策以及防范金融風(fēng)險(xiǎn)決策的基礎(chǔ)，在很大程度上影響企業(yè)抵御風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的能力以及對(duì)外支付的能力，對(duì)企業(yè)的生存及發(fā)展，起著關(guān)鍵性作用。企業(yè)要擴(kuò)大生產(chǎn)規(guī)模，必然對(duì)現(xiàn)金有著巨大的需求。任何企業(yè)，都會(huì)因?yàn)槎唐诘默F(xiàn)金流短缺而陷入困境，甚至面臨破產(chǎn)的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。
全文首先圍繞現(xiàn)金流風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理相關(guān)理論概述，從現(xiàn)金流風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理理論的演進(jìn)和創(chuàng)值宗旨兩個(gè)方面，得出不同階段不同的財(cái)務(wù)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)控制方式。其次，對(duì)現(xiàn)金流風(fēng)險(xiǎn)度量方法進(jìn)行評(píng)述。再次，選取某全球性醫(yī)藥企業(yè)為例，對(duì)其現(xiàn)金流各項(xiàng)指標(biāo)進(jìn)行計(jì)算和比較，分析現(xiàn)金流風(fēng)險(xiǎn)控制對(duì)企業(yè)未來(lái)經(jīng)營(yíng)活動(dòng)和投融資活動(dòng)的影響。最后，得出現(xiàn)金流風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理相關(guān)措施和建議。
通過(guò)本文的研究，針對(duì)現(xiàn)金流風(fēng)險(xiǎn)控制對(duì)公司經(jīng)營(yíng)的重要作用，企業(yè)追求利潤(rùn)最大化的目標(biāo)，現(xiàn)金流管理是價(jià)值創(chuàng)造的基礎(chǔ)。企業(yè)關(guān)注利潤(rùn)的同時(shí)，也要更加關(guān)注企業(yè)的現(xiàn)金流狀況。企業(yè)管理的核心是財(cái)務(wù)管理，而現(xiàn)金流風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理是財(cái)務(wù)管理的重要內(nèi)容。因而，對(duì)企業(yè)而言，現(xiàn)金流管理的質(zhì)量往往決定企業(yè)的成敗。企業(yè)需要不斷提高現(xiàn)金流管理水平，提高資金的使用效率，以實(shí)現(xiàn)企業(yè)的目標(biāo)。

關(guān)鍵字：現(xiàn)金流，風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理，價(jià)值創(chuàng)造，測(cè)度

Abstract
Cash flow is extremely important to an enterprise. Cash flow will always run through an enterprise’s production activities, as well as one enterprise’s operational results. Cash flow is an enterprise’s foundation; any enterprise will fall apart if they don’t have the support of cash flow. At the same time, an enterprise’s daily management activities and its investments are related to each other because of cash flow. Cash flow is an important foundation of making investment decisions and preventing financial risks, it influences an enterprise’s resistibility to certain risks and its ability to payoff external payments, it is also crucial to an enterprise’s survival and development. If an enterprise wants to expand its size, then it will require a huge amount of cash. Any enterprise, any company will get into trouble if there’s a cash flow shortage, sometimes they will go bankrupt.
The paper first explains the risk management of cash flow and its relative theory; from the risk management of cash flow theory’s evolution and the purpose of its value development, it concludes the different ways of controlling financial risks of different period of time. And then, the paper will comment on the ways to control the risks of cash flow. Afterwards, the paper will calculate and compare the different standards of a global pharmaceuticals company’s cash flow, and it will analyze that how will controlling an enterprise’s cash flow risks affect its future management activities and finial investment’s developments. And at last, the paper will conclude cash flow risk management’s relative methods and advices.
The whole paper focused on the importance of cash flow risk managements to one enterprise, that the risk managements of cash flow is one of the most important step for making profits, that the risk managements of cash flow is one enterprise’s foundation. An enterprise should pay more attention on its cash flow while focusing on its profits. Financial management is the core of an enterprise’s managements, yet cash flow risk management is the most important part of the enterprise’s management. An enterprise should constantly enhance the quality of its financial management level, increase the efficiency of using money, thus to achieve its goal.
Key words: cash flow, risk management, value creation, measure.

目 錄
引 言 1
第一章 現(xiàn)金流風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理相關(guān)概念 3
1.1現(xiàn)金流風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理相關(guān)概念及理論概述 3
1.1.1現(xiàn)金流及現(xiàn)金流風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理的含義 3
1.1.2現(xiàn)金流風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理理論的創(chuàng)值宗旨 3
1.1.3 現(xiàn)金流風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理理論演進(jìn) 4
1.2基于生命周期的現(xiàn)金流特征及財(cái)務(wù)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)控制方式 4
1.2.1初創(chuàng)階段現(xiàn)金流特征及財(cái)務(wù)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)控制方式 5
1.2.2發(fā)展階段現(xiàn)金流特征及財(cái)務(wù)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)控制方式 5
1.2.3成熟階段現(xiàn)金流特征及財(cái)務(wù)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)控制方式 6
1.2.4衰退階段現(xiàn)金流特征及財(cái)務(wù)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)控制方式 7
第二章 現(xiàn)金流風(fēng)險(xiǎn)度量的方法評(píng)述 8
2.1以財(cái)務(wù)指標(biāo)度量現(xiàn)金流風(fēng)險(xiǎn) 8
2.1.1財(cái)務(wù)指標(biāo)度量現(xiàn)金流風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的內(nèi)容 8
2.1.2以財(cái)務(wù)指標(biāo)度量現(xiàn)金流風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的評(píng)價(jià) 9
2.2以波動(dòng)性指標(biāo)度量現(xiàn)金流風(fēng)險(xiǎn) 9
2.2.1波動(dòng)性指標(biāo)度量現(xiàn)金流風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的內(nèi)容 9
2.2.2波動(dòng)性指標(biāo)度量現(xiàn)金流風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的評(píng)價(jià) 9
2.3 CFaR現(xiàn)金流在險(xiǎn)值技術(shù)度量現(xiàn)金流風(fēng)險(xiǎn) 9
2.3.1現(xiàn)金流在險(xiǎn)值技術(shù)度量現(xiàn)金流風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的內(nèi)容 9
2.3.2現(xiàn)金流在險(xiǎn)值技術(shù)度量現(xiàn)金流風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的評(píng)價(jià) 10
第三章 現(xiàn)金流風(fēng)險(xiǎn)度量的案例分析 10
3.1拜耳集團(tuán)概述 11
3.2拜耳集團(tuán)2012－－2013年財(cái)務(wù)報(bào)表分析 11
3.2.1財(cái)務(wù)指標(biāo)分析 11
3.2.2波動(dòng)性指標(biāo)分析 12
3.2.3以現(xiàn)金流在險(xiǎn)值技術(shù)度量現(xiàn)金流風(fēng)險(xiǎn)分析 12
3.3 拜耳集團(tuán)現(xiàn)金流風(fēng)險(xiǎn)控制對(duì)企業(yè)未來(lái)發(fā)展的影響 13
3.3.1 現(xiàn)金流對(duì)企業(yè)經(jīng)營(yíng)活動(dòng)影響分析 13
3.3.2 現(xiàn)金流對(duì)企業(yè)投..