xx市歷年交通事故分析與對(duì)策措施的研究

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摘 要
隨著經(jīng)濟(jì)的迅速騰飛以及人民日益增長(zhǎng)的物質(zhì)文化需要，“交通”這一詞匯并不陌生，已經(jīng)徹底地走進(jìn)了人們的生活中，它滿足了人們出行的需要，它便捷、快速，深受歡迎。然而，交通作為國(guó)民經(jīng)濟(jì)和社會(huì)發(fā)展的基礎(chǔ)性產(chǎn)業(yè)，其發(fā)展必須以安全為前提和保障，可現(xiàn)實(shí)卻并不樂(lè)觀。據(jù)官方數(shù)據(jù)統(tǒng)計(jì)，從2001年至今，我國(guó)每年因道路交通事故死亡的人數(shù)都在10萬(wàn)人左右，這遠(yuǎn)遠(yuǎn)超過(guò)了其他各類安全生產(chǎn)傷亡事故的死亡人數(shù)之和。
xx作為我國(guó)發(fā)展較好的城市，每年的交通事故更是屢見(jiàn)不鮮。因此，為了提高xx道路交通方面的研究水平和管理水平，減少道路交通事故的發(fā)生率，本文將對(duì)xx道路交通的現(xiàn)狀、交通事故的成因進(jìn)行全面探索，探討針對(duì)交通事故成因的相應(yīng)對(duì)策措施。
本文除了常規(guī)分析以外，主要運(yùn)用了灰色關(guān)聯(lián)分析方法計(jì)算研究了所統(tǒng)計(jì)的xx市交通事故的25個(gè)方面的數(shù)據(jù)與xx全市交通事故發(fā)生次數(shù)、xx全市受傷人數(shù)和xx全市死亡人數(shù)之間的關(guān)聯(lián)性，分別得出與這三個(gè)方面相關(guān)聯(lián)的因素的排序：對(duì)xx全市事故發(fā)生次數(shù)而言，主要是損失、人口數(shù)、道路、路燈和車輛；對(duì)xx全市受傷人數(shù)而言，主要是橋梁、損失、人口數(shù)、道路和車輛；對(duì)xx全市死亡人數(shù)而言，主要是橋梁、醫(yī)療、車輛、道路和人口數(shù)。對(duì)這些影響因素按由好到劣的順序進(jìn)行歸類整合，最后主要從10個(gè)方面提出針對(duì)性的措施，分別是：人口數(shù)、道路、車輛、駕駛員、橋梁、運(yùn)輸、路燈、醫(yī)療、GRP和保險(xiǎn)。希望能對(duì)改善xx的道路交通有所幫助。

關(guān)鍵詞：交通安全；人；車輛；道路；成因分析；對(duì)策措施；灰色關(guān)聯(lián)


ABSTRACT

With the rapid growth of our economy and the people’s growing material and cultural needs, ”traffic” is no stranger to the vocabulary, it has thoroughly into people’s lives, it meets the needs of people travel, it is convenient, fast and popular. However, traffic as economic and social development of basic industry, its development must be the premise of safety and security, the reality is not optimistic. According to official statistics, from 2001 to date, China’s annual number of death due to road traffic accidents are about 100 thousand people, this far exceeds the number of other types of death and casualties production safety.
As China’s development of better Zhenjiang city, traffic accidents every year is not uncommon. Therefore, in order to improve the level of research and management aspects of road traffic in Zhenjiang, reduce the incidence of road traffic accidents, This paper will present situation Zhenjiang road traffic accidents were fully explore the causes, explore appropriate countermeasures against the causes of traffic accidents.
In this paper, in addition to routine analysis, the main use of gray correlation analysis method to study the date to calculate the 25 aspects of the accident statistics of the city of Zhenjiang are associated with the number of traffic accidents in Zhenjiang city, Zhenjiang city injuries and Zhenjiang city’s death toll. Sort were obtained with these three factors associated: in terms of Zhenjiang city on the number of accidents, mainly losses, population, roads, street lights and vehicles; in terms of the number of injured of Zhenjiang city, mainly bridges, losses, population, roads and vehicles; in terms of the number of deaths of Zhenjiang city, mainly bridges, health care, vehicles, roads and population. These factors according to the order from good to bad to classify integration, finally, targeted measures mainly made from 10 areas, these are: population, roads, vehicles, drivers, bridges, transportation, street lighting, medical, GRP and insurance. The hope is that it can helpful to improve road traffic of Zhenjiang city.

KEY WORDS: traffic safety; people; vehicle; road; causes; countermeasures; grey relational

目 錄
第一章 前言 5
第二章 道路交通事故概況 6
2.1國(guó)外概況 6
2.2國(guó)內(nèi)概況 8
2.3xx近年交通安全狀況 9
第三章 交通事故成因分析 10
3.1人的因素分析 10
3.1.1駕駛員的因素 10
3.2車輛因素分析 13
3.2.1車輛直接因素 13
3.2.2車輛間接因素 13
3.3道路因素分析 14
3.3.1道路線形因素 14
3.3.2視距因素 14
3.3.3其他道路因素 15
第四章 灰色關(guān)聯(lián)分析 16
4.1灰色關(guān)聯(lián)方法簡(jiǎn)介 16
4.2收集整理數(shù)據(jù) 18
4.3確定參考數(shù)列 18
4.4計(jì)算絕對(duì)差值 24
4.5計(jì)算關(guān)聯(lián)系數(shù) 24
4.6計(jì)算關(guān)聯(lián)度 25
4.7結(jié)果分析 30
第五章 交通事故對(duì)策措施 34
5.1基于灰色關(guān)聯(lián)分析結(jié)果的對(duì)策措施 34
5.2人的對(duì)策措施 36
5.2.1駕駛員的對(duì)策措施 36
5.2.2非駕駛員的對(duì)策措施 38
5.3車輛對(duì)策措施 39
5.3.1車輛設(shè)計(jì)的對(duì)策措施 39
5.3.2車輛維護(hù)的對(duì)策措施 40
5.4道路對(duì)策措施 40
5.4.1道路線形的對(duì)策措施 41
5.4.2視距的對(duì)策措施 43
5.4.3其他道路因素的對(duì)策措施 43
第六章 結(jié)論與展望 44
6.1結(jié)論 44
6.2展望 45
參考文獻(xiàn) 46
致謝 47
附錄一 48
附錄二 56
附錄三 70