火電行業(yè)財務危機預警研究

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摘 要
隨著改革開放和市場經(jīng)濟在我國的飛速發(fā)展，我國的企業(yè)、上市公司如雨后春筍般冒出來。中國加入WTO以后，我國企業(yè)面臨更廣闊的環(huán)境和機遇，但同時也要承擔更大的風險。不少企業(yè)因經(jīng)營不良而導致破產(chǎn)。要避免財務危機的發(fā)生，關(guān)鍵還是在企業(yè)自身，建立一套有效地財務危機預警機制顯得尤為重要?；鹆Πl(fā)電是我國最重要的發(fā)電形式，承擔著我國一半以上的電力供應任務。但是，火力發(fā)電對環(huán)境的污染也比較嚴重。現(xiàn)如今，我國對環(huán)境保護的呼聲越來越高。同時風能，水能，太陽能，核能發(fā)電也逐漸發(fā)展起來，對火電行業(yè)造成一定的沖擊。截至目前，已有好幾家火電上市公司面臨過財務危機。因此，本文選定對火電行業(yè)進行財務危機預警研究，有比較重要的現(xiàn)實意義。
本文首先對財務危機預警進行理論研究，明確財務危機、危機形成的原因、財務危機預警等相關(guān)概念的涵義。然后尋找研究的樣本并選取指標，選擇有效的預警模型進行實證研究。經(jīng)過多方比較，本文選取的是Logistic回歸模型，建模之前要對樣本數(shù)據(jù)進行顯著性檢驗，剔除不具有顯著性差異的指標以保證模型的準確性。最后提出本文研究的結(jié)論并給出建議。

關(guān)鍵詞：火電行業(yè) 財務危機預警 Logistic回歸模型

ABSTRACT
With the reform and opening up and rapid development of China's market economy, China's enterprises, listed companies have sprung up. After China joined the WTO, China's enterprises are facing a broader environment and have more opportunities, but they also take greater risks. Many companies bankrupt due to poor operation.To avoid the financial crisis, the key is in the business itself, it is particularly important to establish an effective early warning mechanism to the financial crisis. Thermal power is the most important form of generation. It bears more than half of China's electricity supply missions. However, thermal pollution of the environment is also more serious. Today, our voice on environmental protection is increasing. Meanwhile, wind, hydro, solar, nuclear power has gradually developed and have a certain impact to the thermal power industry. So far, several thermal power listed company have faced financial crisis. Therefore, this paper select the thermal power industry to study the financial crisis early warning. There are more important practical significance.
Firstly, this paper take the theoretical study of the financial crisis early warning, clearly the meaning of financial crisis, the formation of the causes of the crisis, the meaning of the financial crisis early warning and other related concepts. Then look for the study sample and select targets, select an effective early-warning model of empirical research. After careful comparison, the paper selected the Logistic regression model. Before modeling, we have to take significant test to the sample data and exclude index without significant differences ensure the accuracy of the model. Finally, we draw conclusions and gives recommendations.

Keywords: thermal power industry financial crisis warning Logistic regression models

目錄
引 言 1
1.財務危機預警概述 2
1.1財務危機的判定 2
1.2財務危機形成的原因 3
1.3財務危機預警的概念 4
1.4火電行業(yè)財務危機預警的意義 4
2.火電行業(yè)財務危機預警方法的選擇 6
2.1財務危機預警的理論依據(jù) 6
2.2財務危機預警方法的比較 6
2.3本文財務危機預警方法的確立 7
3.火電行業(yè)財務危機預警模型研究樣本及預警指標選取 8
3.1研究樣本的選取 8
3.2預警指標的選取 9
3.2.1預警指標的選取原則 9
3.2.2預警指標的初步選擇 10
3.3火電行業(yè)財務危機預警指標的篩選 11
3.3.1正態(tài)分布檢驗 12
3.3.2兩獨立樣本的t檢驗 12
3.3.3兩獨立樣本的Mann-Whitney U檢驗 13
3.4通過顯著性差異檢驗的指標 14
4.火電行業(yè)財務危機預警模型的建立 16
4.1Logistic回歸模型的建立 16
4.2Logistic回歸模型的檢驗 17
5.本研究的結(jié)論及建議 19
5.1研究的結(jié)論 19
5.2本文的建議 19
結(jié)束語 21
參考文獻： 22
附錄一：stata12操作命令 24