內(nèi)容提要
項(xiàng)目可行性研究是在投資前期對(duì)項(xiàng)目進(jìn)行技術(shù)經(jīng)濟(jì)論證的一種科學(xué)
方法。對(duì)工業(yè)項(xiàng)目的可行性研究已經(jīng)有很多年了，隨著經(jīng)濟(jì)的發(fā)展，影
響項(xiàng)目可行性的因素也越來越多。原有的研究方法需要時(shí)間長、考察因
素少、缺乏靈活性、應(yīng)該說不適應(yīng)現(xiàn)實(shí)的需要。本文依據(jù)可行性研究的
基本理論，從系統(tǒng)的角度去思考，分析了影響項(xiàng)目可行性與否的關(guān)鍵的
因素。從市場需求、經(jīng)濟(jì)效益評(píng)價(jià)、投資和籌資三個(gè)方面分析了影響制
造業(yè)項(xiàng)目可行性的因素，分析構(gòu)建了系統(tǒng)動(dòng)力學(xué)模型，對(duì)項(xiàng)目的經(jīng)濟(jì)可
行性提出意見。目的是為企業(yè)投資決策提供一個(gè)新的工具，能使企業(yè)的
投資決策更加的準(zhǔn)確。
關(guān)鍵字：項(xiàng)目可行性系統(tǒng)思考系統(tǒng)動(dòng)力學(xué)目錄
引言.............................................................................................................................1
第1章概述.................................................................................................................2
1.1選題背景...........................................................................................................2
1.2選題的目的和意義............................................................................................3
第2章相關(guān)問題的文獻(xiàn)綜述.......................................................................................6
2.1可行性研究內(nèi)涵................................................................................................6
2.2可行性研究內(nèi)容綜述........................................................................................7
2.3系統(tǒng)動(dòng)力學(xué)的應(yīng)用研究綜述............................................................................9
2.4制造業(yè)項(xiàng)目可行性研究與系統(tǒng)動(dòng)力學(xué)..........................................................12
第3章市場前景預(yù)測.................................................................................................14
3.1國內(nèi)外關(guān)于市場預(yù)測的方法和模型..............................................................14
3.2項(xiàng)目市場前景影響因素分析..........................................................................18
3.3市場需求影響因素內(nèi)在機(jī)制..........................................................................20
3.4模型的構(gòu)建......................................................................................................21
第4章投資估算與經(jīng)濟(jì)可行性評(píng)價(jià).........................................................................25
4.1投資估算與資金籌措......................................................................................25
4.2經(jīng)濟(jì)評(píng)價(jià)因素分析..........................................................................................26
4.3財(cái)務(wù)子結(jié)構(gòu)模型..............................................................................................28
4.4模型有效性檢驗(yàn)..............................................................................................30
第5章模型的應(yīng)用研究...........................................................................................32
5.1應(yīng)用背景介紹..................................................................................................32
5.2應(yīng)用模型進(jìn)行模擬運(yùn)算..................................................................................35
5.3敏感性分析......................................................................................................36
5.4概率分析.........................................................................................................40
5.5對(duì)投資該項(xiàng)目的建議......................................................................................43
5.6研究展望.........................................................................................................44
結(jié)論...........................................................................................................................45
參考文獻(xiàn).......................................................................................................................46
摘要.............................................................................................................................I
Abstract..........................................................................................................................I
后記.............................................................................................................................1
導(dǎo)師及作者簡介.............................................................................................................1