摘 要
隨著國(guó)民經(jīng)濟(jì)的發(fā)展，越來(lái)越多的公司選擇上市融資，這使上市企業(yè)固有的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)分?jǐn)偟狡胀ü擅窦白C券投資者中。如何規(guī)避風(fēng)險(xiǎn)，指導(dǎo)人們作出正確投資決策就成為理論研究者的一個(gè)重要課題。從近年來(lái)滬、深兩市上市公司及國(guó)內(nèi)外其他企業(yè)的現(xiàn)狀分析可以看出，企業(yè)經(jīng)營(yíng)失敗往往源于薄弱的財(cái)務(wù)環(huán)節(jié)。財(cái)務(wù)管理是企業(yè)管理的核心，企業(yè)資金運(yùn)動(dòng)中樞一旦遭受損害，會(huì)導(dǎo)致財(cái)務(wù)狀況惡化，并引發(fā)財(cái)務(wù)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)，當(dāng)財(cái)務(wù)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)加劇到企業(yè)無(wú)法承擔(dān)的極限時(shí)，全面危機(jī)將會(huì)隨之爆發(fā)，進(jìn)而導(dǎo)致企業(yè)的破產(chǎn)。因此，建立財(cái)務(wù)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)價(jià)及預(yù)警系統(tǒng)，及時(shí)預(yù)測(cè)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)，并采取相應(yīng)措施，將風(fēng)險(xiǎn)消滅于萌芽階段，就成為現(xiàn)代企業(yè)財(cái)務(wù)管理的一項(xiàng)重要內(nèi)容。
自中國(guó)加入WTO以來(lái)，出口急劇增加，制造業(yè)得到了前所未有的發(fā)展。制造業(yè)逐漸成為我國(guó)國(guó)民經(jīng)濟(jì)的基礎(chǔ)和支柱，也成為國(guó)家生產(chǎn)能力的集中體現(xiàn)。然而，隨著我國(guó)制造業(yè)的發(fā)展，技術(shù)落后，規(guī)模較小，財(cái)務(wù)管理水平較低等劣勢(shì)也隨之顯現(xiàn)出來(lái)。加上金融危機(jī)的沖擊，使中國(guó)依賴出口的制造業(yè)企業(yè)面臨巨大的壓力，許多企業(yè)紛紛破產(chǎn)。加強(qiáng)財(cái)務(wù)管理，及時(shí)對(duì)財(cái)務(wù)危機(jī)進(jìn)行預(yù)警，提前做好應(yīng)對(duì)準(zhǔn)備，不僅能使制造業(yè)企業(yè)能順利度過(guò)金融危機(jī)的困難，同時(shí)也為企業(yè)今后的發(fā)展提供有力的支持。
本文第一章首先介紹了構(gòu)建財(cái)務(wù)預(yù)警模型研究的背景及意義，接著對(duì)財(cái)務(wù)危機(jī)、公司治理和經(jīng)濟(jì)增加值等概念進(jìn)行了界定，最后總結(jié)了本文的結(jié)構(gòu)脈絡(luò)和創(chuàng)新之處。第二章回顧了主要五個(gè)財(cái)務(wù)預(yù)警模型的國(guó)內(nèi)外相關(guān)文獻(xiàn)，并分別對(duì)各模型進(jìn)行了評(píng)述。第三章分別對(duì)兩個(gè)財(cái)務(wù)預(yù)警模型進(jìn)了設(shè)計(jì)。第四章對(duì)兩模型進(jìn)行了實(shí)證分析，研究發(fā)現(xiàn)在Logistic模型中在三年模型中，每股凈資產(chǎn)、資產(chǎn)周轉(zhuǎn)率、基本每股收益、審計(jì)意見(jiàn)與公司是否被特別處理有比較密切的關(guān)系。而經(jīng)濟(jì)增加值法更適合于中遠(yuǎn)期預(yù)警。最后對(duì)全文進(jìn)行了總結(jié)，總體而言Logistic模型的預(yù)警效果要更優(yōu)。

關(guān)鍵詞： 財(cái)務(wù)預(yù)警；Logistic模型；經(jīng)濟(jì)增加值



Abstract
With the development of national economy, more and more companies choose public financing, which makes sharing the risks inherent in listed companies to ordinary shareholders and securities investors. How to avoid risks, guiding people to the right investment to become an important topic in theoretical researchers. From recent years, Shanghai and Shenzhen listed companies and other businesses at home and abroad Analysis shows that business failure often stems from a weak financial links. Financial management is the core of enterprise management, enterprise central capital once to be damaged will lead to deteriorating financial situation, and trigger a financial risk, financial risk if the enterprise can`t afford to increase the limit, the comprehensive crisis will ensued, and then lead to business bankruptcy. Therefore, the establishment of financial risk assessment and early warning systems, timely prediction risk, and take appropriate measures to eliminate risk in the bud stage to become a modern enterprise financial management is an important content.
Since China joined the WTO turned sharp increase in exports, manufacturing has been an unprecedented development. Manufacturing has become the basis of our national economy. However, as China's manufacturing industry`s weaknesses also will be revealed. Many Chinese export-dependent manufacturing enterprises are facing tremendous pressure, many companies went bankrupt. To strengthen financial management, not only make the company through a difficult period of financial crisis, but also for the development of powerful enterprises in the future support.
Chapter I introduces the financial early-warning model for building the background and significance, then defies the concept, finally, the structural context of this article, and innovation. Chapter II recalls the main five financial early warning models relevant literature, and for each model were reviewed. Chapter III, respectively, into the design of financial distress prediction model. Chapter IV the empirical analysis of two models, the study found in the Logistic model in three years, net assets per share, asset turnover, basic earnings per share, audit opinions is associated with the company to be ST . The EVA method is more suitable for the long-term early warning. Finally summarizes the full text, in general, Logistic Model is better.

Key words: Financial Distress, Logistic model, EVA
目 錄
摘 要 I
Abstract II
第1章 緒論 1
1.1 研究背景及意義 1
1.1.1 研究背景 1
1.1.2 研究目的及意義 3
1.2 相關(guān)概念界定 5
1.2.1 財(cái)務(wù)危機(jī) 5
1.2.2 財(cái)務(wù)預(yù)警 7
1.2.3 公司治理 8
1.2.4 經(jīng)濟(jì)增加值 8
1.3 研究思路和方法 10
1.3.1 研究思路 10
1.3.2 研究方法 11
1.4 結(jié)構(gòu)安排和創(chuàng)新之處 11
1.4.1 論文結(jié)構(gòu)安排 11
1.4.2 創(chuàng)新之處 12
1.5 本章小結(jié) 12
第2章 文獻(xiàn)回顧與評(píng)述 13
2.1 單變量預(yù)警模型 13
2.2 多元線性判別模型 13
2.3 邏輯回歸模型 14
2.4 神經(jīng)網(wǎng)絡(luò)模型 15
2.5 經(jīng)濟(jì)增加值法 16
2.5.1 國(guó)外對(duì)EVA研究情況回顧 17
2.5.2 國(guó)內(nèi)對(duì)EVA研究情況回顧 18
2.6 國(guó)內(nèi)外研究現(xiàn)狀評(píng)述 18
2.7 本章小結(jié) 19
第3章 研究設(shè)計(jì) 20
3.1 Logistic模型研究設(shè)計(jì) 20
3.1.1 研究樣本的設(shè)計(jì) 20
3.1.2 研究方法與研究程序 25
3.2 經(jīng)濟(jì)增加值模型研究設(shè)計(jì) 27
3.2.1 研究樣本的選擇 27
3.2.2 經(jīng)濟(jì)增加值分類 27
3.2.3 會(huì)計(jì)數(shù)據(jù)的調(diào)整 28
3.2.4 EVA的具體計(jì)算 30
3.3 本章小結(jié) 32
第4章 實(shí)證研..