摘 要

現(xiàn)代物流作為一種提高效益的有效途徑，己成為國民經(jīng)濟的支柱產(chǎn)業(yè)和新的經(jīng)濟增長點，目前被認為是第三利潤源泉。發(fā)展現(xiàn)代物流是增強一個國家、地區(qū)競爭力的重要途徑。
隨著我國加入WTO和西部大開發(fā)戰(zhàn)略的進一步深入，某市作為中國最年輕的直轄市，同時是西南地區(qū)的交通樞紐和制造業(yè)基地。經(jīng)濟必將進入騰飛，同時會產(chǎn)生大量物流，但是，由于交通規(guī)劃、產(chǎn)業(yè)結構、政策措施等原因，某市市物流業(yè)發(fā)展速度緩慢。因此，如何利用現(xiàn)代物流理論對某市市物流流向流量分析研究，借鑒發(fā)達國家和地區(qū)的先進經(jīng)驗與措施，并結合某市市的實際情況提出有效的對策建議，對加快某市市物流業(yè)發(fā)展的速度，促進某市市經(jīng)濟社會快速健康協(xié)調發(fā)展有著重要的現(xiàn)實意義。
文章一、二、三部分，對研究目的、意義相關理論概念和某市市物流現(xiàn)狀作了介紹分析。以交通運輸方式為切入點，分析研究物流流向；接著用貨運量結合某市市中轉貨運比例表示物流量。為下面的研究論述工作做了鋪墊。
第四部分首先分析了2006年某市市主要物流流向以及與各流向區(qū)域主要交通聯(lián)系方式。然后結合物流量的各影響因素，包括某市市貨運量、流量區(qū)域貨運量和貨運通道，導出本文研究的重點，各物流流向物流量占某市物流總量比例的公式。最后以2020年為預測目標，結合相關政策性文件給出了2020年某市與各流向區(qū)域的交通通道以及聯(lián)系方式變化情況，接著對公路、鐵路和水路三種貨運量進行了預測，結合公式算出了2020年各流向流量分布情況。
第五部分針對前面的研究，本文提出了某市市物流業(yè)發(fā)展的對策建議。
第六部分說明本文結論和研究展望，為以后研究與改進提供參考。


關鍵詞：物流，物流流向，物流流量，物流流量預測

ABSTRACT

Modern logistics as an effective way to improve efficiency, has become the national economy's pillar industries and new economic growth points, is now considered is the third profit source. Enhance the development of modern logistics is a national, regional competitiveness in an important way.
As China's accession to the WTO and the western development strategy of further in-depth, and Chongqing as the youngest municipality in China, while the southwestern region is the transport hub and manufacturing base. Into the economy will take off at the same time will have a lot of logistics, but due to transportation planning, industrial policy measures and other reasons, the Chongqing Municipal development of the logistics industry has been slow. Therefore, how to use modern logistics of the Chongqing Municipal logistics flow of traffic analysis study, learn from developed countries and regions with the advanced experience of measures, combined with the actual situation in Chongqing Municipality to propose effective measures to accelerate the development of the logistics industry in Chongqing City, the speed, Chongqing Municipality to promote economic and social coordination, rapid and healthy development is of important practical significance.
PartⅠ、Ⅱ、Ⅲ ：The purpose of the study, the significance of theoretical concepts related to logistics and Chongqing Municipality made an introductory analysis of the status quo. To transport mode for the entry point, the analysis of the logistics flows and then combined with cargo transit cargo in Chongqing Municipality said that the proportion of logistics. Below is the research work done on the stage.
Part IV： First, Chongqing Municipal major logistics flows and flows with the main regional transport links means. Then with the logistics of the various factors, including the Chongqing Municipal cargo, freight and cargo traffic regional channels, the focus of this paper is derived, in the logistics flow of logistics in Chongqing account for the proportion of the total logistics formula. Finally, 2020 is forecast target, with the relevant policy documents presented in 2020 with the Chongqing region of the flow of traffic access and the associated changes in the way, and then on road, rail and sea cargo for the three forecasts, calculated with the formula The 2020 distribution of the flow of traffic.
Part V for the previous study, this paper, the Chongqing Municipal Development of the logistics industry recommendations.
Part VI conclusions and that this study prospects for future research and improvement of reference.


Key words： Logistics, Logistics Flow, Volume of Logistics Flow, Forecast


目 錄

摘 要 I
ABSTRACT II
1緒論 1
1.1 課題研究目的 1
1.2 課題研究意義 1
1.2.1 課題研究學術意義 1
1.2.2 課題研究的實用意義 2
1.3本文的主要內容 2
2相關概念的理論研究 3
2.1物流概念介紹 3
2.2 物流流量概念及流量預測方法介紹 4
2.3 物流流向相關概念介紹 4
3國內及某市市物流現(xiàn)狀分析 6
3.1 WTO時代我國物流產(chǎn)業(yè)發(fā)展現(xiàn)狀 6
3.1.1從國內物流產(chǎn)業(yè)發(fā)展速度看 6
3.1.2從國內物流企業(yè)經(jīng)營方式來看 6
3.1.3從國內物流運作模式來看 6
3.1.4從國內物流產(chǎn)業(yè)空間布局來看 7
3.1.5從國內物流市場格局來看 7
3.2 某市市物流現(xiàn)狀 7
3.2.1 物流基礎設施——交通狀況 8
3.2.2 某市對外口岸建設情況 9
3.2.3 某市市物流人才儲備狀況 11
3.2.4某市市物流業(yè)發(fā)展的政策制度狀況 11
4某市市物流主要流向流量分析及預測 12
4.1 某市市物流主要流向分析 12
4.2 某市市物流各個流向上的物流量 13
4.3 2020年某市市物流流向及其交..