cbd項目投資決策風(fēng)險的識別與評價.doc
約81頁DOC格式手機打開展開
cbd項目投資決策風(fēng)險的識別與評價,摘 要cbd是城市發(fā)展過程中的必然產(chǎn)物。隨著城市現(xiàn)代化的發(fā)展，越來越多的國家和地區(qū)在籌建cbd項目，在我國cbd建設(shè)近年來呈現(xiàn)出如火如荼的狀態(tài)。但是不是每一個cbd的建成都帶來了經(jīng)濟社會效益，由于項目決策的盲目性，一些cbd的建設(shè)甚至為城市的發(fā)展帶來重創(chuàng)，不僅沒有帶來效益而且?guī)砹撕艽蟮纳鐣栴}，比如cbd周邊交通擁堵...
內(nèi)容介紹
此文檔由會員 違規(guī)屏蔽12 發(fā)布
摘 要
CBD是城市發(fā)展過程中的必然產(chǎn)物。隨著城市現(xiàn)代化的發(fā)展，越來越多的國家和地區(qū)在籌建CBD項目，在我國CBD建設(shè)近年來呈現(xiàn)出如火如荼的狀態(tài)。但是不是每一個CBD的建成都帶來了經(jīng)濟社會效益，由于項目決策的盲目性，一些CBD的建設(shè)甚至為城市的發(fā)展帶來重創(chuàng)，不僅沒有帶來效益而且?guī)砹撕艽蟮纳鐣栴}，比如CBD周邊交通擁堵、城市CBD的功能淡化等問題。在如今的城市CBD建設(shè)中如何避免這些問題的出現(xiàn)呢？必須對項目的決策依據(jù)做出充分的論證，而這些依據(jù)主要集中在項目決策風(fēng)險上，因此有必要對CBD項目投資決策風(fēng)險進行研究。
文章通過對國內(nèi)外CBD相關(guān)研究文獻進行綜述發(fā)現(xiàn)針對CBD的已有研究多側(cè)重在城市規(guī)劃視角下的研究，而對CBD項目投資決策風(fēng)險涉及較少。論文首先簡單介紹了CBD的相關(guān)概念與CBD項目決策風(fēng)險的相關(guān)理論，論述我國CBD建設(shè)的問題與風(fēng)險研究的必要性；然后詳細(xì)論述了CBD項目投資決策風(fēng)險的識別與評價，按照風(fēng)險與外界的關(guān)系將風(fēng)險因素分為系統(tǒng)外部風(fēng)險、系統(tǒng)內(nèi)部風(fēng)險與系統(tǒng)交錯風(fēng)險等三類，并運用工作-風(fēng)險分解法對CBD項目決策風(fēng)險進行了識別，建立了CBD項目風(fēng)險庫，同時給出了CBD項目風(fēng)險因素指標(biāo)權(quán)重的確定方法；接下來考慮到綜合風(fēng)險是系統(tǒng)不可控制風(fēng)險與可控制風(fēng)險的綜合體，將相對風(fēng)險標(biāo)度比系數(shù)引入模糊綜合評價方法中，對原有模型進行了修正，從而規(guī)避了傳統(tǒng)模糊綜合評價最大隸屬度判斷的絕對性評判缺乏科學(xué)性的缺陷；最后以長沙市經(jīng)濟技術(shù)開發(fā)區(qū)CBD項目為研究對象，對其投資決策風(fēng)險展開研究，并基于分析結(jié)果給出了其風(fēng)險控制的相應(yīng)對策建議。
以上研究一定程度上豐富了項目風(fēng)險管理的理論與方法，而且對提高城市CBD項目投資決策的科學(xué)性具有現(xiàn)實意義。
關(guān)鍵詞 中央商務(wù)區(qū)；風(fēng)險；模糊綜合評價
Abstract
CBD is inevitable product in the process of city development. With the development of urban modernization, the CBD project is under construction in more and more countries and regions. In recent years, the construction of CBD in our country is on a roll. But not all the construction of CBD has brought economic and social benefits. Even some of the construction of CBD development has brought heavy losses for the city , not only did not bring benefits but also brought a lot of social problems such as traffic congestion around the CBD、the city played down the function of CBD and other issues, owing to the blindness of project decisions. How to avoid these problems of the city CBD building today? Decisions must be based on the project to make a full argument, which focused on project decision-making based on risk, so it is necessary to study the CBD risk of investment decision.
The paper has found that more focused perspective in urban planning research, but risk of CBD involves less investment decision, from the CBD-related articles on domestic and international research literature reviewed. Paper first introduces the concept of CBD and the related theory of CBD projects decision-making risk ,discusses the issues of CBD construction and the necessary of research risk; and then discusses in detail the investment decision CBD risk identification and eva luation, in accordance with the risk and the outside world between the risk factors into the system of external risk, internal risk systems and system staggered three types of risk, and identified the CBD project decision-making risks by use of the method of work - risk decomposition, establish a CBD project risk database, and gives the CBD project risk factors method for determining the index weight; next is the system taking into account the comprehensive risk control risk and may not be a synthesis of control risk, the relative risk scale than coefficient of fuzzy comprehensive eva luation method, the original model was modified to avoid the traditional fuzzy comprehensive eva luation to determine the absolute maximum degree of a lack of scientific eva luation defect; Finally, Changsha Economic and Technological Development Zone CBD project as the research object, studies its investment decision risk,gives its corresponding risk control countermeasures based on the analysis results .
The research of above not only enriches the research of project risk management theory and methods on a certain degree, but also provides the practical significance for improving the city CBD scientific investment decision
Key words central business district; risk; fuzzy comprehensive eva luation
目 錄
摘 要 I
Abstract II
第1章 緒論 1
1.1 研究背景及意義 1
1.1.1 研究背景 1
1.1.2 研究意義 1
1.2 國內(nèi)外研究現(xiàn)狀 2
1.2.1 CBD國內(nèi)外研究現(xiàn)狀 2
1.2.2 研究趨勢 5
1.3 研究內(nèi)容與方法 6
1.3.1 研究內(nèi)容 6
1.3.2 研究方法與技術(shù)路線 6
1.4 論文創(chuàng)新點 7
第2章 理論基礎(chǔ)與國內(nèi)CBD建設(shè)現(xiàn)狀 8
2.1 CBD的相關(guān)概念理論 8
2.1.1 CBD的定義與類別 8
2.1.2 CBD的特征 8
2.1.3 CBD的功能演化 9
2.2 CBD項目風(fēng)險 10
2.2.1 CBD風(fēng)險概念 10
2.2.2 CBD項目風(fēng)險的特點 10
2.2.3 CBD項目風(fēng)險分類 11
2.2.4 CBD項目投資決策風(fēng)險管理的目標(biāo)與任務(wù) 13
2.3國內(nèi)CBD建設(shè)現(xiàn)狀分析 14
2.3.1 國內(nèi)CBD建設(shè)的優(yōu)勢 14
2.3.2 國內(nèi)CBD建設(shè)的問題 15
2.3.3 國內(nèi)CBD建設(shè)投資決策風(fēng)險研究的必要性 17
2.4 本章小結(jié) 18
第3章 CBD項目投資決策風(fēng)險識別研究 19
3.1 CBD項目風(fēng)險因素分析 19
3.1.1 CBD項目系統(tǒng)外部風(fēng)險因素 19
3.1...
CBD是城市發(fā)展過程中的必然產(chǎn)物。隨著城市現(xiàn)代化的發(fā)展，越來越多的國家和地區(qū)在籌建CBD項目，在我國CBD建設(shè)近年來呈現(xiàn)出如火如荼的狀態(tài)。但是不是每一個CBD的建成都帶來了經(jīng)濟社會效益，由于項目決策的盲目性，一些CBD的建設(shè)甚至為城市的發(fā)展帶來重創(chuàng)，不僅沒有帶來效益而且?guī)砹撕艽蟮纳鐣栴}，比如CBD周邊交通擁堵、城市CBD的功能淡化等問題。在如今的城市CBD建設(shè)中如何避免這些問題的出現(xiàn)呢？必須對項目的決策依據(jù)做出充分的論證，而這些依據(jù)主要集中在項目決策風(fēng)險上，因此有必要對CBD項目投資決策風(fēng)險進行研究。
文章通過對國內(nèi)外CBD相關(guān)研究文獻進行綜述發(fā)現(xiàn)針對CBD的已有研究多側(cè)重在城市規(guī)劃視角下的研究，而對CBD項目投資決策風(fēng)險涉及較少。論文首先簡單介紹了CBD的相關(guān)概念與CBD項目決策風(fēng)險的相關(guān)理論，論述我國CBD建設(shè)的問題與風(fēng)險研究的必要性；然后詳細(xì)論述了CBD項目投資決策風(fēng)險的識別與評價，按照風(fēng)險與外界的關(guān)系將風(fēng)險因素分為系統(tǒng)外部風(fēng)險、系統(tǒng)內(nèi)部風(fēng)險與系統(tǒng)交錯風(fēng)險等三類，并運用工作-風(fēng)險分解法對CBD項目決策風(fēng)險進行了識別，建立了CBD項目風(fēng)險庫，同時給出了CBD項目風(fēng)險因素指標(biāo)權(quán)重的確定方法；接下來考慮到綜合風(fēng)險是系統(tǒng)不可控制風(fēng)險與可控制風(fēng)險的綜合體，將相對風(fēng)險標(biāo)度比系數(shù)引入模糊綜合評價方法中，對原有模型進行了修正，從而規(guī)避了傳統(tǒng)模糊綜合評價最大隸屬度判斷的絕對性評判缺乏科學(xué)性的缺陷；最后以長沙市經(jīng)濟技術(shù)開發(fā)區(qū)CBD項目為研究對象，對其投資決策風(fēng)險展開研究，并基于分析結(jié)果給出了其風(fēng)險控制的相應(yīng)對策建議。
以上研究一定程度上豐富了項目風(fēng)險管理的理論與方法，而且對提高城市CBD項目投資決策的科學(xué)性具有現(xiàn)實意義。
關(guān)鍵詞 中央商務(wù)區(qū)；風(fēng)險；模糊綜合評價
Abstract
CBD is inevitable product in the process of city development. With the development of urban modernization, the CBD project is under construction in more and more countries and regions. In recent years, the construction of CBD in our country is on a roll. But not all the construction of CBD has brought economic and social benefits. Even some of the construction of CBD development has brought heavy losses for the city , not only did not bring benefits but also brought a lot of social problems such as traffic congestion around the CBD、the city played down the function of CBD and other issues, owing to the blindness of project decisions. How to avoid these problems of the city CBD building today? Decisions must be based on the project to make a full argument, which focused on project decision-making based on risk, so it is necessary to study the CBD risk of investment decision.
The paper has found that more focused perspective in urban planning research, but risk of CBD involves less investment decision, from the CBD-related articles on domestic and international research literature reviewed. Paper first introduces the concept of CBD and the related theory of CBD projects decision-making risk ,discusses the issues of CBD construction and the necessary of research risk; and then discusses in detail the investment decision CBD risk identification and eva luation, in accordance with the risk and the outside world between the risk factors into the system of external risk, internal risk systems and system staggered three types of risk, and identified the CBD project decision-making risks by use of the method of work - risk decomposition, establish a CBD project risk database, and gives the CBD project risk factors method for determining the index weight; next is the system taking into account the comprehensive risk control risk and may not be a synthesis of control risk, the relative risk scale than coefficient of fuzzy comprehensive eva luation method, the original model was modified to avoid the traditional fuzzy comprehensive eva luation to determine the absolute maximum degree of a lack of scientific eva luation defect; Finally, Changsha Economic and Technological Development Zone CBD project as the research object, studies its investment decision risk,gives its corresponding risk control countermeasures based on the analysis results .
The research of above not only enriches the research of project risk management theory and methods on a certain degree, but also provides the practical significance for improving the city CBD scientific investment decision
Key words central business district; risk; fuzzy comprehensive eva luation
目 錄
摘 要 I
Abstract II
第1章 緒論 1
1.1 研究背景及意義 1
1.1.1 研究背景 1
1.1.2 研究意義 1
1.2 國內(nèi)外研究現(xiàn)狀 2
1.2.1 CBD國內(nèi)外研究現(xiàn)狀 2
1.2.2 研究趨勢 5
1.3 研究內(nèi)容與方法 6
1.3.1 研究內(nèi)容 6
1.3.2 研究方法與技術(shù)路線 6
1.4 論文創(chuàng)新點 7
第2章 理論基礎(chǔ)與國內(nèi)CBD建設(shè)現(xiàn)狀 8
2.1 CBD的相關(guān)概念理論 8
2.1.1 CBD的定義與類別 8
2.1.2 CBD的特征 8
2.1.3 CBD的功能演化 9
2.2 CBD項目風(fēng)險 10
2.2.1 CBD風(fēng)險概念 10
2.2.2 CBD項目風(fēng)險的特點 10
2.2.3 CBD項目風(fēng)險分類 11
2.2.4 CBD項目投資決策風(fēng)險管理的目標(biāo)與任務(wù) 13
2.3國內(nèi)CBD建設(shè)現(xiàn)狀分析 14
2.3.1 國內(nèi)CBD建設(shè)的優(yōu)勢 14
2.3.2 國內(nèi)CBD建設(shè)的問題 15
2.3.3 國內(nèi)CBD建設(shè)投資決策風(fēng)險研究的必要性 17
2.4 本章小結(jié) 18
第3章 CBD項目投資決策風(fēng)險識別研究 19
3.1 CBD項目風(fēng)險因素分析 19
3.1.1 CBD項目系統(tǒng)外部風(fēng)險因素 19
3.1...
