摘 要

大型造船設(shè)施是造修船必備的關(guān)鍵設(shè)施，因此造船企業(yè)總是面臨著大型造船設(shè)施投資決策問題。作為造船企業(yè)的一項固定資產(chǎn)投資，它占造船企業(yè)投資成本的較高比例，它是造船企業(yè)進行造船投資決策的主要影響因素，是造船企業(yè)賴以存在的前提。由于大型造船設(shè)施投資本身也存在著許多與其他投資項目不同的特點，如投資規(guī)模大、期限長、管理彈性多等特點，決定了傳統(tǒng)投資決策方法無法圓滿解決大型造船設(shè)施投資決策問題。因此有必要為大型造船設(shè)施投資決策尋找一種更為適用和有效的投資決策方法，論文采用實物期權(quán)方法對大型造船設(shè)施投資決策進行了研究。
（1）論文介紹了等待期權(quán)、懸置期權(quán)、增長期權(quán)、放棄期權(quán)、分段期權(quán)、規(guī)模期權(quán)、轉(zhuǎn)換期權(quán)及組合期權(quán)等8種實物期權(quán)類型，詳細分析大型造船設(shè)施投資決策的特點及其實物期權(quán)特征。通過與傳統(tǒng)投資決策方法的對比分析，闡述了實物期權(quán)方法在投資決策中的應(yīng)用優(yōu)勢，實物期權(quán)方法能夠補充和修正傳統(tǒng)投資決策評價方法所忽視的投資者管理彈性所包含的價值。因此本文選擇實物期權(quán)方法對大型造船設(shè)施投資決策進行研究。
（2）在具體應(yīng)用實物期權(quán)方法進行大型造船設(shè)施投資決策時，論文根據(jù)生命周期理論以及影響造船企業(yè)投資決策的不確定性因素，對造船企業(yè)各個生命周期中所具有的主要的實物期權(quán)類型進行了識別。將大型造船設(shè)施投資決策中所存在的各種管理彈性及其對應(yīng)的實物期權(quán)類型主要歸納為四種：擴大造船能力的彈性與戰(zhàn)略性的增長期權(quán)、停運與否的彈性與懸置期權(quán)、投資時機選擇彈性與等待期權(quán)以及退出彈性與放棄期權(quán)。
（3）為便于實物期權(quán)方法在大型造船設(shè)施投資決策中的應(yīng)用，論文分別為這四種期權(quán)類型建立了相應(yīng)期權(quán)計價模型并通過案例進行分析驗證。通過與傳統(tǒng)投資決策方法的對比，驗證了該方法的優(yōu)越性，這對我國造船業(yè)投資決策具有借鑒意義。

關(guān)鍵詞 大型造船設(shè)施 ；實物期權(quán) ；管理彈性 ；投資決策
Abstract

Large shipbuilding facility is one of necessary facilities to build and repair the ship. So shipbuilding enterprises has always faced a investment decision-making problem of large shipbuilding facility. As a fixed asset investment of the shipbuilding enterprises, It accounts for higher percentages of investment cost, and it is one of the main factors which has a influence to the shipbuilding investment decision-making in the shipbuilding enterprises. And it is the prerequisite of shipbuilding enterprises’ existence. The investment of Large shipbuilding facility has its own special characterizes other than other kind of investment, such as massive investment; long period for investment; many managerial flexibilities and so on. All these make it difficult to solve the problem of Large shipbuilding facility investment with traditional investment decision method. As concerned as that，it is necessary to find a more suited and effective method to make Large shipbuilding facility investment decision. The paper adopts real option method to study the large shipbuilding facility investment decision.
(1)The paper introduced 8 real option types including waiting option, mounting option, growth option, abandon option, subsection option, size option, conversion option and combination option. It analysis the characteristics and the real option features of large shipbuilding facility investment decision making in detail. Compared with traditional investment decision-making method of analysis , the paper expounds the application of advantages of real option method in the investment decision-making, the real options method can supplement and correct the implicit value of the management flexibility which is ignored by the traditional investment decision-making. Therefore, the paper chooses real option method for large shipbuilding facility investment decisions.
(2) In the specific application of real options method for large-scale investment decisions, the paper recognizes the main types of real option in shipbuilding enterprises investment decisions according to the life cycle theory and affects of uncertainty. It contains four main types: the elastic of expanding the inductive shipbuilding ability and growth option, the elastic of mount or not and mount options, the elastic of investment timing and waiting option, the elastic of exiting and abandon option.
(3) For ease of real options approach in large shipbuilding facility investment decision, the paper constructs corresponding option pricing model for four option types and verified through case analysis. Compared with traditional investment decision-making method contrast, it verifies the advantages of the method. The paper is instructive for shipbuilding industry investment decisions.

Keywords: Large shipbuilding facility; Real Options; managerial flexibility; investment decision making
目 錄
摘 要 I
Abstract II
第1章 緒論 1
1.1 研究背景和意義 1
1.1.1 研究背景 1
1.1.2 研究目的及意義 2
1.2 國內(nèi)外研究綜述 3
1.2.1 實物期權(quán)研究綜述 3
1.2.2 造船業(yè)投資決策研究綜述 5
1.3 論文思路和創(chuàng)新點 6
1.3.1 研究思路 6
1.3.2 研究內(nèi)容 7
1.3.3 論文創(chuàng)新點 8
第2章 相關(guān)概念與理論 9
2.1 實物期權(quán)的含義 9
2.1.1 金融期權(quán)的概念 9
2.1.2 實物期權(quán)的含義及種類 10
2.1.3 金融期權(quán)與實物期權(quán)的比較 12
2.1.4 實物期權(quán)的應(yīng)用前提 14
2.2 實物期權(quán)定價模型 15
2.2.1 基本模型的重要原..