瑞銀集團(tuán)研報(bào)：聚焦中國(guó)——中國(guó)對(duì)“熱錢(qián)”的擔(dān)憂程度應(yīng)該有多大？[外文翻譯]
UBS Investment Research: China Focus
——How Much Should China Be Worried about “Hot Money”？
內(nèi)包含中文翻譯和英文原文，內(nèi)容完善，建議下載閱覽。

①中文頁(yè)數(shù)9

中文字?jǐn)?shù)4914

②英文頁(yè)數(shù)11

英文字?jǐn)?shù)2601

③ 摘要
在最近幾個(gè)月里，中國(guó)的外匯儲(chǔ)備繼續(xù)以穩(wěn)定的速度增加。最新的數(shù)據(jù)顯示，“熱錢(qián)”流入可能加速。這和其他經(jīng)濟(jì)體最近動(dòng)蕩的貨幣市場(chǎng)一起，導(dǎo)致“熱錢(qián)”在中國(guó)引起爆炸性的討論和擔(dān)心。大量關(guān)于“熱錢(qián)”流入規(guī)模的估計(jì)已經(jīng)公開(kāi)，這敲響了大量資金可能外流的警鐘。只是中國(guó)對(duì)“熱錢(qián)”流入和流出的擔(dān)心到底應(yīng)該有多大？我們的觀點(diǎn)如下：
最近幾個(gè)月里，“熱錢(qián)”流入規(guī)模迅速崛起，但其總體規(guī)模（3000-4000億美元）與一些人的看法并非一樣。雖然刺激各種外匯流入中國(guó)的因素增加，但這些外匯不太可能以預(yù)先確定的人民幣/美元匯率大規(guī)模流出，也似乎與股票市場(chǎng)無(wú)關(guān)?？傮w外匯規(guī)模積累的速度已經(jīng)并將繼續(xù)擾亂貨幣政策，破壞宏觀政策的公正性，但由于中期的結(jié)構(gòu)性問(wèn)題，其影響可能會(huì)更加間接。因?yàn)橹袊?guó)想要繼續(xù)保持穩(wěn)定的匯率和獨(dú)立的貨幣政策，因此，嚴(yán)格的資本管制勢(shì)在必行，管制措施必將出臺(tái)。


China’s foreign exchange reserves continue to accumulate at a quite substantial pace in recent months, and the latest data show that “hot money” inflows may have accelerated. This and the recent currency market turmoil in other economies have led to an explosion of discussions and concerns about “hot money” in China. A wide range of estimates on the size of the hot money inflows have flocked to the public arena and alarm bells about possible large outflows rang loud. Just how much should China worry about “hot money” inflows and outflows? Here is what we think：
“Hot money” inflows have risen rapidly in recent months, but the overall size ($300-$400 billion) is not nearly as large as some believe. While the incentives for all sorts of FX inflows to China have risen, they will not likely move out en mass at a certain pre-determined RMB/USD exchange rate and do not seem to be associated with the equity market. The speed of the overall FX accumulation has and will continue to complicate monetary policy and undermine the macro policy objective, but its impact may be felt more indirectly, as structural problems in the medium-term. Since China wants to retain its exchange rate stability and monetary policy independence, stricter capital control measures may be in the pipeline.


④關(guān)鍵字 熱錢(qián)/Hot Money