摘要

目前，加工貿(mào)易已成為中國(guó)的主要貿(mào)易方式。為了弄清加工貿(mào)易與中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的關(guān)系，本文以中國(guó)1985年到2007年的統(tǒng)計(jì)數(shù)據(jù)為基礎(chǔ)，通過采用協(xié)整理論，格蘭杰因果關(guān)系檢驗(yàn)和誤差修正模型（EMC），分別考察了加工貿(mào)易進(jìn)口和出口與經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的關(guān)系。實(shí)證結(jié)果表示加工貿(mào)易進(jìn)口與經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)之間存在單方面的格蘭杰因果關(guān)系。加工貿(mào)易進(jìn)口影響了GDP的增長(zhǎng)。在短期內(nèi)，加工貿(mào)易進(jìn)口和加工貿(mào)易出口均刺激了GDP的增長(zhǎng)，但這種影響比較低；很長(zhǎng)一段時(shí)間里，加工貿(mào)易進(jìn)口顯著地促進(jìn)了GDP的增長(zhǎng)，而加工貿(mào)易出口限制了GDP的增長(zhǎng)。

關(guān)鍵詞：加工貿(mào)易；中國(guó)；經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)；實(shí)證分析

ABSTRACT

Presently, processing trade has become China’s major trade method. In order to make clear the relationship between processing trade and China’s economic growth, this paper, based on China’s statistical data from 1985 to 2007,by employ co-integration theory, Granger causality test and error correction model(ECM),respectively investigates the relationship between processing trade import ,processing trade export and economic growth .The empirical result denotes that exists unilateral granger causality relationship between processing trade import and economic growth. Processing trade import influences the growth of GDP. For a shot period, processing trade import and processing trade export both spur the growth of GDP, but the impact is comparatively low; for a long period, processing trade import remarkably promotes the growth of GDP, while processing trade export restricts the growth of GDP.


KEYWORDS：processing trade ; China; economic growth; evidence
字?jǐn)?shù)：5068個(gè)
頁(yè)數(shù)：14頁(yè)