會(huì)計(jì)政策的披露和財(cái)務(wù)分析師的預(yù)測[外文翻譯]

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英文：26934字   10頁

會(huì)計(jì)政策的披露和財(cái)務(wù)分析師的預(yù)測
奧雷-克里斯提安 何培
約瑟夫L羅特曼管理學(xué)院 多倫多大學(xué)
加拿大，多倫多，喬治街道105號

鳴謝：
我感激由托馬斯場，比約恩喬根森，伊麗莎白基廷，羅伯特馬吉，沃利，富康瓦爾特，格雷格韋邁爾（副主編）的文件，2000年EIIA會(huì)議，2001年AAA級中西部地區(qū)和年度會(huì)議，以及2001年EIASM資本市場研究國際研討會(huì)進(jìn)行了研討。我感謝挪威經(jīng)濟(jì)與工商管理學(xué)院的金融和羅特曼管理學(xué)院的支持以及感謝IBES國際公司提供伊比斯盈利預(yù)測數(shù)據(jù)。
會(huì)計(jì)政策的披露和分析師的預(yù)測
摘要：
在使用國際樣本情況下，我調(diào)查是各個(gè)公司是否將他們的會(huì)計(jì)政策，在年度報(bào)告中披露程度與分析師盈余預(yù)測的相關(guān)聯(lián)，為企業(yè)和國家提供變量控制。我發(fā)現(xiàn)會(huì)計(jì)政策披露的詳細(xì)度在很大的程度上與財(cái)務(wù)報(bào)表中存在的錯(cuò)誤量相關(guān)，這說明專項(xiàng)會(huì)計(jì)政策的披露比一般年度報(bào)告披露更有用。我的研究結(jié)果表明，會(huì)計(jì)政策披露和盈利預(yù)測的減少是有不確定的關(guān)聯(lián)性。我發(fā)現(xiàn)在單變量的而不是多元變量的環(huán)境中披露會(huì)計(jì)政策對財(cái)務(wù)分析師進(jìn)行盈利預(yù)測特別有用,而最直接的用處就是確定目標(biāo)公司的會(huì)計(jì)處理方法。
關(guān)鍵詞：會(huì)計(jì)政策的披露，財(cái)務(wù)分析師，預(yù)測分析，國際

Accounting Policy Disclosures and

Analysts' Forecasts
Ole-Kristian Hope
Joseph L. Rotman School of Management
University of Toronto
105 St. George Street Toronto, Ontario, Canada M5S 3E6 okhope@rotman.utoronto.ca

Acknowledgements
I appreciate the helpful comments on various versions of this paper by Thomas Fields, Bjørn Jørgensen, Elizabeth Keating, Robert Magee, Wally Smieliauskas, Beverly Walther, Greg Waymire (Associate Editor), an anonymous reviewer and workshop participants at Northwestern, Toronto, the 2000 CIERA/EIIA Conference, the 2001 AAA Midwest Regional and Annual Meetings, and the 2001 EIASM International Workshop on Capital Market Research. All errors are my own. I gratefully acknowledge the financial support of the Norwegian School of Economics and Business Administration and the Rotman School of Management. I thank IBES International Inc. for providing earnings forecast data.

Abstract
Using an international sample, I investigate whether the extent of firms' disclosure of their accounting policies in the annual report is associated with properties of analysts' earnings forecasts. Controlling for firm- and country-level variables, I find that the level of accounting policy disclosure is significantly negatively related to forecast dispersion and forecast error. In particular, I find that accounting policy disclosures are incrementally useful to analysts over and above all other annual report disclosures. These findings suggest that accounting policy disclosures reduce uncertainty about forecasted earnings. I find univariate but not multivariate support for the hypothesis that accounting policy disclosures are especially helpful to analysts in environments where firms can choose among a larger set of accounting methods.

Key Words
Accounting policy disclosures, financial analysts, forecast dispersion and error, international